Thursday, November 30, 2017

World Top 10 October 2017 (Updated)

Image result for BAIC ec series
World's best selling Plug-in this year

Models: BAIC EC-Series #1!!!


After a record breaking month in September, October was close to beat it, growing 84% YoY to almost 121.000 units, pulling the 2017 count to 888.400 units, up 51% regarding the same period in 2016. 

Considering this brilliant performance, i think it is safe to say that the next two months will bring record results, i'm betting some 125k units in November and 150k in December. Ambitious? Maybe, but i think the stars are aligned for these numbers.

In October, it was all about the BAIC EC-Series reaching historic levels (11.315 units, new all-time record for a single model for the second time) and taking the Monthly Best Seller title for the second time in a row, allowing it to reach the YTD pole-position and now being the strongest candidate for this year Best Seller title.

Which are the reasons for this success? As mentioned here, the EC-Series lies in the middle of a booming market (China) and class (City cars), with a competitive price regarding its range, without losing quality and design.



As for the remaining YTD Top 10, there were significant changes, if the BAIC EC-Series climbed to First, the Tesla Model S did the opposite, dropping from Gold to Bronze, other big news were the Zhidou D2 EV climbing to Fifth, at the expense of the Tesla Model X, while the BMW i3 surpassed the Renault Zoe and is now #7.

Below, the BYD Song PHEV is now firm in #9, while the Chevrolet Volt is still Tenth, but with three models (Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, BYD e5 and Chevrolet Bolt) less than 1.000 units behind, and all outselling the GM model in October, the Volt will need to step up sales significantly if it wants to keep a Top 10 place.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have 65% share, up 1% regarding last month, thanks to the Chinese rise, this being the highest BEV share since 2011(!). 

PlWORLDOctober YTD%'16Pl
1BAIC EC-Series11.31549.191642
2Toyota Prius Prime / PHV3.95043.323564
3Tesla Model S2.44542.07152
4
5
6
Nissan Leaf   *
Zhidou D2 EV
Tesla Model X
4.940
4.502
2.150
41.081
37.093
35.699
5
4
4
1
32
7
7BMW i32.85126.63536
8Renault Zoe2.31326.52938
9BYD Song PHEV3.06422.9103N/A
10Chevrolet Volt1.92221.67624

TOTAL 120.912888.400

* - Leaf I & II combined

Image result for 2017 Zhidou d2
Zhidou D2 EV


Manufacturers:  BYD back at #1, Roewe joins Top 10

BYD recovered the first spot in October, thanks to another 11.000-something performance (Now in its fifth straight month), allowing it to surpass Tesla, which had its usual first-month-of-quarter blues.

Considering that BYD should make two more 11.000-something performances, the Chinese OEM should end the year at around 104k, while Tesla should make an additional 24k in the last two months, so it could end at around 102k deliveries. It's a close cal, so anything can still happen in the manufacturers race.

Another interesting story has developed at the bottom end, with the Chinese Roewe (6.112 units, new personal best) jumping to #9, surpassing the slow selling Renault and also Volkswagen, thus displacing the German brand from the Top 10, but here's the interesting part, all three brands are separated by only 144 units, as the #11 Volkswagen has 33.142 registrations.

Despite this temporary proximity, the truth is that these brands are all in different moments, if Roewe is beating sales records month after month, probably going beyond 6k units/month in the following two months, Renault for some reason is stuck at 3k/month, having been there since July, and Volkswagen is slowly increasing production, possibly beating the 5k/month rate until year end, meaning that Roewe should have its Ninth Place secured in December, while Volkswagen should be closing the Top 10.


PlWORLDOct.YTD%'16Pl
1BYD 11.80780.91991
2Tesla4.74078.13992
3BMW 8.69974.75793
4BAIC 12.99566.71185
5
6
7
Nissan 
Toyota
Chevrolet 
5.219
3.950
5.276
45.032
43.376
42.265
5
5
5
4
30
8
8Zhidou 4.50237.118414
9Roewe
6.112
33.286415
10Renault
3.423
33.159410





Top 6 Countries by Manufacturer origin

Country       Units   Share
1.China 385 155 43%
2.Germany 161 202 19%
3. USA 143 041 16%
4. Japan 110 497 12%
5. France 38 356 4%
6. S. Korea 31 548 4%

Looking at the sales numbers by country, we can see China having a dominating position, with 43% share, followed by Germany and the USA.

Comparing with 2016, we see a stable ranking, as shares are almost the same, the only changes are the USA losing 1% share, while South Korea doubled its share, from 2 to 4%.

The Korean case is the most interesting comparison, because if last year it had just surpassed Sweden as the Sixth largest plug-in provider, this year thanks to doubling sales, it is already starting to threaten France's position, which highlights the power of the Asian OEMs, that together have 59% of the global market.

Looking back further, into 2013 for example, there are strinking differences: At that time, Japan had 46% of the total market and the USA 31%, with the Third Place at the hands of France, with 9%, while China was only Fourth, with just 6% share.



11 comments:

  1. What's the last table about? While numbers for China, USA, France may look like the correct YTD data, all others looks like random. Germany 161k, really? From your own data it's just 41k.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just 41k? How?

      Just BMW alone has 78k.

      Add 33k more from VW and we have already 111k.

      Add Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, StreetScooter and Smart...Which all together add another 50k.

      Hyundai - Kia have 31k;

      Adding Nissan, Mitsubishi, Toyota and Honda we get 110k.

      Delete
    2. If you write sales numbers it can be understan as sales in the countries, not sales by the manufacturers in the countries. That a huge differens and should be explained.

      Delete
    3. It is a table regarding where the manufacturers are from.
      So all Nissan sales goes into Japan. All Hyundai sales goes into South Korea. All Tesla sales goes into USA. Mercedes, Smart, BMW, VW, Audi, Opel etc. into Germany.

      It is not about sales in that country or cars produced there but the brands home countries.

      I loved the table, but I also had to look at it more than once to realize what the numbers were about so some explanation to it would be good. :P

      Delete
    4. I think the table shows the nationality of the manufacturer, rather than where sales take place.

      Delete
    5. Aaaah I got you, it's manufacturers summary by country of manufacturer original base. Some header would be helpful.

      Delete
  2. I think he is confuse because of this YTD plug-in sales in Germany for October: http://ev-sales.blogspot.pt/search/label/Germany, which indicates some 41.000 sales.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Are you including regular hybrids in that list?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I hear you, people, my bad. :)

    I have included a title on the Manufacturer origin ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Why do you keep Renault and Nissan separated? They are part of a single group, which actually includes Mitsubishi as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On this regular ranking, i only cover brands.

      Regarding Automotive Groups, from time to time, i also do a best sellers list, just keep a close eye to the following editions of the Global articles.

      Delete