Thursday, November 30, 2017

World Top 10 October 2017 (Updated)

Image result for BAIC ec series
World's best selling Plug-in this year

Models: BAIC EC-Series #1!!!


After a record breaking month in September, October was close to beat it, growing 84% YoY to almost 121.000 units, pulling the 2017 count to 888.400 units, up 51% regarding the same period in 2016. 

Considering this brilliant performance, i think it is safe to say that the next two months will bring record results, i'm betting some 125k units in November and 150k in December. Ambitious? Maybe, but i think the stars are aligned for these numbers.

In October, it was all about the BAIC EC-Series reaching historic levels (11.315 units, new all-time record for a single model for the second time) and taking the Monthly Best Seller title for the second time in a row, allowing it to reach the YTD pole-position and now being the strongest candidate for this year Best Seller title.

Which are the reasons for this success? As mentioned here, the EC-Series lies in the middle of a booming market (China) and class (City cars), with a competitive price regarding its range, without losing quality and design.



As for the remaining YTD Top 10, there were significant changes, if the BAIC EC-Series climbed to First, the Tesla Model S did the opposite, dropping from Gold to Bronze, other big news were the Zhidou D2 EV climbing to Fifth, at the expense of the Tesla Model X, while the BMW i3 surpassed the Renault Zoe and is now #7.

Below, the BYD Song PHEV is now firm in #9, while the Chevrolet Volt is still Tenth, but with three models (Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, BYD e5 and Chevrolet Bolt) less than 1.000 units behind, and all outselling the GM model in October, the Volt will need to step up sales significantly if it wants to keep a Top 10 place.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have 65% share, up 1% regarding last month, thanks to the Chinese rise, this being the highest BEV share since 2011(!). 

PlWORLDOctober YTD%'16Pl
1BAIC EC-Series11.31549.191642
2Toyota Prius Prime / PHV3.95043.323564
3Tesla Model S2.44542.07152
4
5
6
Nissan Leaf   *
Zhidou D2 EV
Tesla Model X
4.940
4.502
2.150
41.081
37.093
35.699
5
4
4
1
32
7
7BMW i32.85126.63536
8Renault Zoe2.31326.52938
9BYD Song PHEV3.06422.9103N/A
10Chevrolet Volt1.92221.67624

TOTAL 120.912888.400

* - Leaf I & II combined

Image result for 2017 Zhidou d2
Zhidou D2 EV


Manufacturers:  BYD back at #1, Roewe joins Top 10

BYD recovered the first spot in October, thanks to another 11.000-something performance (Now in its fifth straight month), allowing it to surpass Tesla, which had its usual first-month-of-quarter blues.

Considering that BYD should make two more 11.000-something performances, the Chinese OEM should end the year at around 104k, while Tesla should make an additional 24k in the last two months, so it could end at around 102k deliveries. It's a close cal, so anything can still happen in the manufacturers race.

Another interesting story has developed at the bottom end, with the Chinese Roewe (6.112 units, new personal best) jumping to #9, surpassing the slow selling Renault and also Volkswagen, thus displacing the German brand from the Top 10, but here's the interesting part, all three brands are separated by only 144 units, as the #11 Volkswagen has 33.142 registrations.

Despite this temporary proximity, the truth is that these brands are all in different moments, if Roewe is beating sales records month after month, probably going beyond 6k units/month in the following two months, Renault for some reason is stuck at 3k/month, having been there since July, and Volkswagen is slowly increasing production, possibly beating the 5k/month rate until year end, meaning that Roewe should have its Ninth Place secured in December, while Volkswagen should be closing the Top 10.


PlWORLDOct.YTD%'16Pl
1BYD 11.80780.91991
2Tesla4.74078.13992
3BMW 8.69974.75793
4BAIC 12.99566.71185
5
6
7
Nissan 
Toyota
Chevrolet 
5.219
3.950
5.276
45.032
43.376
42.265
5
5
5
4
30
8
8Zhidou 4.50237.118414
9Roewe
6.112
33.286415
10Renault
3.423
33.159410





Top 6 Countries by Manufacturer origin

Country       Units   Share
1.China 385 155 43%
2.Germany 161 202 19%
3. USA 143 041 16%
4. Japan 110 497 12%
5. France 38 356 4%
6. S. Korea 31 548 4%

Looking at the sales numbers by country, we can see China having a dominating position, with 43% share, followed by Germany and the USA.

Comparing with 2016, we see a stable ranking, as shares are almost the same, the only changes are the USA losing 1% share, while South Korea doubled its share, from 2 to 4%.

The Korean case is the most interesting comparison, because if last year it had just surpassed Sweden as the Sixth largest plug-in provider, this year thanks to doubling sales, it is already starting to threaten France's position, which highlights the power of the Asian OEMs, that together have 59% of the global market.

Looking back further, into 2013 for example, there are strinking differences: At that time, Japan had 46% of the total market and the USA 31%, with the Third Place at the hands of France, with 9%, while China was only Fourth, with just 6% share.



Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Europe October 2017


Image result for 2018 VW e-Golf


VW e-Golf Shines


The European passenger plug-in market seems to have reached a turning point, with October growing 56% regarding the same period last year, to over 27.000 units. This is the fifth time in the last six months where we see 50%-plus growth rates.



Looking at the broader picture of the Automotive market in Europe, we are also watching some seismic changes, with diesel-powered cars dropping 10% YoY in October, to 41% share, while regular gasoline cars are up to 51% and Alternative Fueled cars (PEVs, HEVs, CNG, etc) are up to 6% share.



If we look only at PEV share, October hit 2.1% share, keeping the year-to-date share at a record 1.8%.



October saw a close race between the Renault Zoe and VW e-Golf, decided in the last minute by photo-finish, with the Renault Zoe winning by just 46 units, while the VW e-Golf (2.159 units) performed its third personal best score in a row.



Interestingly, the two Best Selling ICE models in Europe (VW Golf and Renault Clio) have their plug-in counterparts (e-Golf and Zoe) reaching the Top 5. Expect this to become a trend, once more and more mainstream buyers, more risk-averse, join the EV market.





Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:



Image result for white Renault Zoe

#1 Renault Zoe – Despite growing 52% YoY, the October performance of the French hatchback was a bit disappointing, scoring 2.205 units, losing the Untouchable status it had in the first half of the year. Considering there is still a waiting list to be filled, Renault could increase production at their Flins factory without major demand problems. Are production constraints to blame? As for market individual performances, despite underperforming at its home market (775 units, down 4%), it broke all records in Spain (554 deliveries), thanks to a car-sharing deal, collecting also high numbers in countries like Germany (243 units), and Sweden (119 deliveries, being the third straight month of record deliveries).    


Image result for white VW e-Golf 2017

#2 Volkswagen e-Golf – The range increase of the German hatchback coincided with a massive spike in demand, with record breaking performances almost every month, pulling registrations up to 2.159 deliveries last month. With a months-long waiting list, Volkswagen has enough room to continue improving results, and we might even see it win the Best Seller trophy soon. Will it be in November? Looking at its largest markets, Norway is still the backbone of demand, with a record 1.168 units being delivered there, but with Germany (389), Netherlands (184 units, new personal best) and Austria (78 registrations), and other markets helping along, the e-Golf is now a more spread out vehicle and not just a “Norway thing”. With the sales record (11.170 sales, in 2015) set to be broken in November, and Volkswagen announcing production increases to meet demand, expect 2018 to build on this year success. Oh, the wonders of increased range…


Image result for white BMW i3

#3 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch was down 4% in October, to 1.687 units, with this drop being explained by the current facelift change. With BEVs now representing 74% of all sales, we are very far from the mix of April 2016, when the BEV version represented only 48% of sales. Looking at individual countries, no big surprises, with Norway registering 417 units (All BEV), and Germany scoring 332 registrations. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to pick up, as BMW starts to deliver their new, facelifted units.



Image result for white outlander phev
#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – A sure value, the Japanese SUV has seen its sales go up 6% YoY, to 1.494 registrations, with Mitsubishi being one of the few Top OEMs to have its sales limited by demand and not production. As such, Mitsubishi is actively promoting its plug-in model, highlighting its unique mix of space, AWD and electric range (50 kms NEDC), with competitive prices (Read “deep discounts”) as the icing on the cake. This makes him popular in markets like in the UK, Norway, Sweden or Germany. In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.


Image result for white passat GTE

#5 Volkswagen Passat GTE – Back at the Top 5, VW’s favorite PHEV company-car recorded 1.244 units last month. The largest markets for the Passat GTE were Sweden (535 units), Germany (235) and Norway (207). With the right mix of space, electric range and a familiar badge, expect this model to continue to be a regular here.



Image result for streetscooter work
StreetScooter Work


YTD Ranking – Volkswagen e-Golf climbs to #8, StreetScooter joins Top 20



October didn’t brought many changes to the YTD ranking, with the Renault Zoe remaining stable in the lead, and the Second Placed BMW i3 distancing itself from the Nissan Leaf, now entering in “sunset mode”.



With the Outlander PHEV less than 500 units behind, we might even see Mitsubishi’s SUV drop the Leaf to Fourth before December.



The first position change was in the Eighth Position, with the VW e-Golf displacing the Tesla Model X, with the ever improving German BEV now aiming for the Fifth position by year end, and maybe a podium place next year.



In the second half of the Top 20, we see the Golf GTE climb to #13 and the Hyundai Ioniq Electric reach #18.



But the real news is the Streetscooter Work delivery van joining the Top 20, having registered 910 units last month, and despite being only sold in just two markets (Germany and the Netherlands), it is already the Best Selling model in its category.



Is the DHL-owned company starting to be disruptive in the delivery van class?



Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW (20%) is comfortably seated at the Iron Throne, followed by Renault (13%) in Second Place, while a recovery-mode Volkswagen (13%) is closing in, having recovered 1200 units in October and now being only some 800 units behind the French manufacturer.



Will we see VW reach Silver next month?



Outside the podium, Tesla (9%) is running ahead of Nissan and Mercedes, both with 8% share.



Pl
Europe
October
YTD
%
1
Renault Zoe
2205
26143
11
2
BMW i3
1687
16567
7
3
Nissan Leaf
1075
15914
7
4
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1494
15477
6
5
Tesla Model S
773
11365
5
6
VW Passat GTE
1244
10787
4
7
Mercedes GLC350e
1056
10332
4
8
VW e-Golf
2159
10091
4
9
Tesla Model X
616
9392
4
10
BMW 225xe Act. Tourer
939
8763
4
11
BMW 330e
808
8682
4
12
Audi A3 e-Tron
587
7102
3
13
VW Golf GTE
947
6550
3
14
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV
780
6543
3
15
Mercedes C350e
436
5679
2
16
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
565
4924
2
17
BMW X5 40e
435
4913
2
18
Kia Soul EV
583
4431
2
19
BMW 530e
697
4248
2
20
StreetScooter Work
910
3633
1

Others
7836
50990
20

TOTAL
27832
242526
100