Wednesday, January 18, 2017

China December 2016


Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
Geely Emgrand EV


Newcomers Month

The Chinese market had 44.874 new EV's in December, far from the 60.000 expected by analysts, but still up 27% YoY, pulling the Plug-in Market Share to a record 1.45%, above the USA (0.9%) and Europe (1.3%).

Despite the “disappointing” plateauing in December, which a bit like expecting that Usain Bolt breaks the 0-100 meters World Record every time he goes on track, looking at the big picture, the 351.861 units registered in China during 2016 represent approximately 46% of ALL plug-ins sold worldwide this year, with Chinese carmakers responsible for 43% of all EV production in 2016.

To confirm the rising trend of the Big Red Giant, in 2013 China had only 6% of the worldwide plug-in production, since then it had increased share at a 11-12% yearly pace.

In December there were a number of fresh models shining, with the BAIC EC180 being the most impressive, reaching Second Place right on its landing month.

Here are last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

   
Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
#1 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest car makers in China, owner of Volvo and LTI, the iconic Black Cab from London, joined this year the EV Bandwagon, by selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan, and last month it was the most successful to date, with a massive 6.023 units, a new all-time record for a single model, allowing it to win for the first time the Best Seller status. With ok looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0-100kms/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 kms range from a 45 kWh Lithium battery), Geely is betting to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans, while the more export-oriented Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.


Image result for baic ec180
#2 – BAIC EC180: After being shown in last November, the BAIC EC180 has landed in the following month with a bang, registering 4.128 units, a new record for a debut month, this city car has the advantage of offering a rather appealing Crossoverized-look, good equipment features, Ok interiors and a usable range, with 180 kms. Is this enough to sustain the record figures registered in December? No one really knows, but BAIC has great ambitions for this platform, with more models coming and input from a certain LeEco company…
  

Image result for chery arrizo 7 phev specs
#3 – Chery Arrizo 7 PHEV: Another newcomer willing to stir the established players, the Arrizo 7 PHEV is Chery’s new product, having arrived just in October, it is already reaching the podium, thanks to 2.922 registrations last month. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in hybrid sedan market, with a starting price of 150k Yuan (20.500 euro), a 9.3 kWh battery and 50 kms electric range, this model wants to give the BYD Qin and SAIC’s e550 a run for the money and hopefully repeat this podium position in other occasions.


Image result for byd e6 specs 
#4 – BYD e6: Below all these newcomers we have the longest running plug-in in China, zooming the streets since 2010, the BYD e6, this model experienced a record year in 2016, thanks to some new impressive range specs, shaming everyone bar Tesla, with its 400 kms range coming from a 80 kWh battery. Popular among taxi-fleets, this model ended the year with 2.528 units in December.


Image result for byd e5 specs 
#5 – BYD e5: This plain-Jane sedan is on the rise, having beaten its monthly record, with 2.420 units delivered in December, starting to become a regular in this Top 5. Unlike the more show stopping BYD Qin EV300, the e5 feels more taxi-friendly regular looking but with basically the same specs as the all-electric Qin, 305 kms range included. A BYD for cost conscious (230k Yuan / 30k Euro) customers.



Year-to-Date Ranking – 100% BYD Podium


With over 70(!) models on sale, three of them landing last month, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on Earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.

Proof of this balance is the fact the BYD Tang, China’s Best Selling Plug-in in 2016, ended the year with 31.000 units, or just 9% of the plug-in market, the lowest share of any winner in the World. Also, it hasn’t won any Monthly Best Seller trophy since July…Despite this, it was a record year for the Chinese SUV, scoring 31.405 units, slightly below the 31.898 all-time record set by its BYD Qin relative in 2015, but enough to leave the same BYD Qin in Second Place this year, some 10.000 units behind.

But the real surprise this year was the Third Place of the veteran BYD e6, thanks to a strong Q4 (7.715 units), it climbed to Third Place for the first time since 2013, with a record 20.605 units, making it three BYD’s in the podium seats, a first.

Below we find two BAIC’s, the E-Series EV and the EU260, both had disappointing performances in December and were surpassed by the old fox BYD e6, while the Geely Emgrand EV jumped to #6 in December, leaving strong credentials for 2017. Will we see it run for the leadership?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader BYD lost 3% share, to 28%, but it was enough to win the Manufacturers title (Third in a row), to put three BYD’s in the podium, another in #9 and other in #14. Not bad, eh?

BAIC (12%) ended in Second Place and Zotye (11%) secured the Third Spot, ahead of SAIC, Chery and Zhidou, all with 6% share.

An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China, so here is a small tip on its performance, there was only some 100 Model S delivered in December, because that month was the first mass delivery of the Model X, with more than 1.000 units being registered that month.

As result, Tesla ended the year with 3% share, being the Best Selling foreign manufacturer, ahead of Porsche (1%).

Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEV’s and PHEV’s, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving share, ending the year at 76%, up 1% regarding November 2016 and 7% more than the result achieved in 2015.


Pl
China
Dec.
YTD
%
1
BYD Tang
1.510
31.405
9
2
BYD Qin
821
21.868
6
3
BYD e6
2.528
20.605
6
4
BAIC E-Series EV
227
18.814
5
5
6
7
8
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand EV
Zotye Cloud EV
Chery eQ
309
6.023
1.615
1.927
18.805
17.181
16.417
16.017
5
5
5
5
9
BYD e5
2.420
15.639
4
10
SAIC Roewe e550
620
15.145
4
11
Zotye E200
2.213
13.154
4
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Zhidou D1 EV
JMC E100
BYD Qin EV300
JAC I EV 4
Zhidou D2 EV
Tesla Model S  e)
Kandi K17 Cyclone
JAC I EV 5
Changan Eado EV
Others
491
921
519
1.407
1.347
108
758
1.088
504
17.518
11.201
10.823
10.656
10.453
9.091
7.548
6.862
4.971
4.839
70.367
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
21
TOTAL Market
44.874
351.861
100


 e) Estimate

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Denmark December 2016



Renault Zoe 2016 Best Seller, Model X Rookie of the Year


The 320 units registered last month were the best result of the year, pulling the year tally to 1.438 units, which was still a 70% drop over last year and most importantly, less than 2014, when the market reached 1.642 units. 

Same story regarding the EV Share, the 0.65% of 2016 is way behind the 2.29% of 2015 and even 2014 was better, with 0.88%...Let's hope 2017 brings better news from this market.

The top two models concentrated 61% of sales, with the Renault Zoe winning without a sweat its First Best Seller award, with 612 units and 43% share, followed by the BMW i3 (252 units, 18%), while the Third Place was won by the Tesla Model X, a model received with open arms by the Danes, allowing it to be the Rookie of the Year and earn a podium seat.

Looking at the remaining models ranking, the two times Best Seller (2013 & 2014) Nissan Leaf jumped in December to Fourth, thanks to a year best performance of 57 registrations, displacing the Tesla Model S to #5.


In the Manufacturers ranking, Renault was the Best Seller (43%) thanks to the Zoe success, with BMW ending in a distant Second (18%) and Tesla in Third (12%), with the French carmaker winning its second title, after the 2012 win.

In this BEV-heavy market, PHEV's did some groundwork and grew to 11% share in 2016, up from just 3% in 2015.

Finally a mention to Fuel Cells, there were 16 FCEV's registered in 2016, significantly below the 30 units sold in the previous year, the soon-to-be-departed Hyundai ix35 FCEV still outsold the Toyota Mirai by 12 units to 4, despite the Japanese having better specs, it seems buyers prefer the normal look of the Hyundai.


PlDenmarkDec.     YTD%'15Pl
1Renault Zoe135612434
2
3
BMW i3 *
Tesla Model X
20
39
252
98
18
7
2
N/A
4
5
6
Nissan Leaf
Tesla Model S
Volkswagen e-Up!
57
20
13
85
78
62
6
5
4
5
1
8
7Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia **195843
8Mercedes C350e  
3027
8
Mercedes GLC350e   e)5302
N/A
10
11
12
13
14
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Volvo XC90 T8
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen e-Golf

2
1
2
2
29
22
21
18
13
2
2
1
1
1
10
N/A
N/A
12
6
15Mercedes GLE500e281N/A
16
17
17
19
20
20
20
20
Mercedes S500e
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
BMW X5 40e
Peugeot Partner EV
Mercedes B250e
BMW i8
Renault Kangoo ZE
BMW 740e
2

1





6
5
5
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
17
9
16
14
N/A

TOTAL3201.438100

Source: www.bilimp.dk

* - 17 Bev +3 Rex
** - 10 Pass + 9 Lcv

Monday, January 16, 2017

Germany December 2016

Image result for Zoe vs i3
Running neck to neck for Number One


Renault Zoe vs BMW i3

Some 2.911 plug-ins were registered last month in Germany, some 7% behind last year result, with the full year registrations ending at 27.104 units, a 12% increase over 2015, with the EV Share ending at 0.81%, slightly above the 0.75% registered last year.

Looking at the monthly models ranking, after a slow November, BMW pushed the i3 deliveries in December and returned to the Top Spot, with 433 units, followed by its arch-enemy, the Renault Zoe, with only 239 units, or about half the registrations it had in the same month last year, with the ZE40 version still on the first stages of delivery, the French hatch sat in a sort of no-mans-land last month, losing a precious advantage over the i3, but more on that later...

In Third Place we have once again the BMW 225xe Act. Tourer scoring a personal best for the second month in a row, to 236 units, this is possibly the model that benefited the most from the new incentives scheme made this year by the German government.

Fourth we have the Audi A3 e-Tron (183 registrations), while in Fifth we have the Outlander PHEV, with 180 units, its best result since March, possibly due to some heavy discounting, after all, let's not forget the Japanese SUV is racing the Renault Zoe for Europe's Best Selling Plug-in title and the Renault model is being caught with its pants down...

PlModel
Sales  
1BMW i3433
2Renault Zoe239
3BMW 225xe A. Tourer236
4
Audi A3 e-Tron
183
5Mit. Outlander PHEV180

While the mainstream German market is known for its extreme stability (I mean, Glaciars change more each month), the plug-in niche is the complete opposite, with frequent changes and a balanced ranking, and December was no exception:

- The race for the Best Seller title was decided by just 58 units, the smallest distance ever, with the BMW i3 overcoming the Renault Zoe by 2.863 to 2.805, with the aforementioned deliveries push by BMW proving to be crucial for the Bavarian hot hatch Second title, after the one earned in 2014;

- The VW Golf GTE dropped to #8, by registering only 46 units, down 68% YoY, to the benefit of the Outlander PHEV, ending in Sixth, and the Kia Soul EV, Seventh;

- The BMW 225xe Active Tourer just made it to the Top 10, switching positions with the Nissan Leaf, while the Tesla Model X reached #19, while two recent models have left their mark on the 2016 ranking, with the Mercedes E350e reaching #32 and the Hyundai Ioniq Electric #35. Expect both of them to end 2017 much higher...

Looking at some highlights for 2016, the race between the top two was quite entertaining, with the Renault Zoe proving to be competitive in German lands (Then again, there is no VW e-Polo...), the VW Golf GTE and Outlander PHEV had significant YoY drops, while Kia this year had the common sense to send directly their Soul EV's to Norway, with "sales" consequently stumbling to more normal levels.   
BMW (19%) won its Second manufacturers title, with last year winner Volkswagen (15%) and the 2012 champion, Renault (13%,) completing the podium.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, plug-in hybrids increased slightly their share (41% to 45%) regarding 2015, but they still are outsold by BEV's in Germany.


PlGermanyDec. YTD%'15 Pl
1
2
BMW i3 *
Renault Zoe
433
239
2.863
2.805
11
10
2
6
3
4
5
Audi A3 e-Tron
StreetScooter   e)
Tesla Model S
183
100
160
1.615
1.500
1.474
6
6
5
5
N/A
7
6
7
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Kia Soul EV
180
121
1.436
1.384
5
5
3
1
8Volkswagen Golf GTE461.31554
9Volkswagen Passat GTE1421.25659
10
BMW 225xe Active Tourer2361.203420
11
12
13
Nissan Leaf
Volkswagen e-Golf
Audi Q7 e-Tron
112
28
52
1.121
860
797
4
3
3
10
8
24
14
15
16
Volvo XC90 T8
Mercedes C350e   e)
Renault Twizy   e)
77
47
30
689
681
680
3
3
3
28
13
15
17Volkswagen e-Up!
120
592212
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Mercedes B250e
Tesla Model X
BMW 330e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
BMW X5 40e
Mercedes GLC350e
Mercedes GLE500e
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Mercedes S500e    e)
BMW i8
BMW 740e
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Porsche Panamera PHEV
Peugeot iOn
Mercedes E350e
Renault Kangoo ZE e)
Citroen C-Zero
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Others
22
111
20
24
32
59
24
23
20
26
24
14
28
24
72
5
16
39
24
437
430
386
363
360
296
284
282
257
243
208
186
157
154
142
140
113
80
315
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
 1
14
N/A
32
17
22
N/A
29
18
19
16
N/A
25
23
36
N/A
N/A
36
N/A

TOTAL
2.911
27.104
100



* - 290 Bev + 143 Rex 


e) Estimate

Source: kba.de



Tesla Model S vs The Others (*)

Pl
Model
Dec.
2016
1
Porsche Panamera
273
2
Mercedes CLS
179
3
Tesla Model S
160
4
Audi A7
148
5
BMW 6-Series
106

The Tesla Model S deliveries were down 32% YoY, to 160 units, despite this significant drop, the Californian actually ended December in an honorable Third Spot, ahead of the BMW 6-Series and Audi A7while the Second Placed Mercedes CLS was only 19 units ahead. 

More than the Model S influence, it seems these German Autobahn bruisers are suffering from the launch of the new (And much cooler) Porsche Panamera, currently the undisputed Top Dog, with 273 units.


(*) - Considering that the German market is one of the hardest for Tesla to crack, the models we are comparing are not the volume sellers like the Audi A6 or BMW 5-Series, but those that are closer in concept and price to the Californian Sports Sedan.